Posted by: Dr. Grover B. Proctor, Jr. | 3 November 2014

Predicting November 4: What Are They Saying?


They make their living predicting the future. So now, on Election Day, what is the “final word” from the political pollsters and polling analysts about the 2014 midterms? Lucky for you, I have collected all their major latest predictions here in one easy-to-read post. I invite you to jump in with both feet, and find out who’s saying what.
          You’ll find two types of predictions here: (1) polling data [P], from those who actually ask samples of people, tally up the responses, and make predictions; and (2) polling aggregations [A], from those who gather many different polls, weight them, and calculate probabilities of outcomes.
          I’ll deal primarily with the question of who will have control of the U.S. Senate next year, followed by what consensus says are the six closest Senate races, plus Louisiana and Kentucky (two high profile races). Finally, I will give data on just a few of the most closely followed races for Governor in the nation.
          Dive in, and have fun…

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C O N T R O L   O F   S E N A T E
[A] 76.2% chance for Republican takeover. (Nate Silver; Nov3)
[A] 75% chance for Republican takeover. (New York Times; Nov3)
[A] 97% chance of Republican takeover; prediction: 53-47 seats. (Washington Post; Nov3)
[A] 52-48 seat Republican takeover. (Real Clear Politics; Nov3)
[A] 95% chance for Republican takeover. (CNN; Nov3)

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S E N A T E — N O R T H   C A R O L I N A
[A] 69% chance of win. 48.8% Hagan (D); 47.4% Tillis (R). (Nate Silver, Nov3)
[A] 71% chance of win for Hagan (D). (New York Times, Nov3)
[A] 44.1% Hagan (D); 43.4% Tillis (R). (Real Clear Politics, Nov3)
[A] 76% chance of win for Hagan (D). (Washington Post, Nov3)
[P] 48% Hagan (D); 44% Tillis (R). (Public Policy Polling, Nov2)
[P] 47% Tillis (R); 46% Hagan (D). (Gravis, Oct30)
[P] 43% Hagan (D); 42% Tillis (R). (Fox/Anderson-Robbins/Shaw, Oct30)
[P] 48% Hagan (D); 46% Tillis (R). (CNN/ORC, Oct30)
[P] 47% Hagan (D); 46% Tillis (R). (Rasmussen, Oct30)
[P] 48% Hagan (D); 46% Tillis (R). (Monmouth U., Oct26)
[P] 44% Hagan (D); 44% Tillis (R). (High Point U., Oct25)
[P] 43% Hagan (D); 43% Tillis (R). (NBC News/Marist, Oct23)
[P] 44% Hagan (D); 44% Tillis (R). (SurveyUSA, Oct23)
[P] 45% Hagan (D); 41% Tillis (R). (Elon U., Oct23)

S E N A T E — G E O R G I A
[A] 75% chance of win. 49.7% Perdue (R); 47.6% Nunn (D). (Nate Silver, Nov3)
[A] 67% chance of win for Perdue (R). (New York Times, Nov3)
[A] 47.2% Perdue (R); 44.3% Nunn (D). (Real Clear Politics, Nov3)
[A] 79% chance of win for Perdue (R). (Washington Post, Nov3)
[P] 49.8% Perdue (R); 45.6% Nunn (D); 2.4% Swafford (L). (Landmark/WSB-TV, Nov3)
[P] 50% Perdue (R); 46% Nunn (D). (Landmark, Nov2)
[P] 47% Perdue (R); 44% Nunn (D). (SurveyUSA/WXIA-TV, Nov2)
[P] 46% Perdue (R); 45% Nunn (D). (Public Policy Polling, Nov2)
[P] 48% Perdue (R); 44% Nunn (D). (NBC News/Marist, Oct30)
[P] 48% Perdue (R); 44% Nunn (D). (Marist, Oct29)
[P] 46% Perdue (R); 46% Nunn (D). (Rasmussen, Oct29)
[P] 49% Perdue (R); 41% Nunn (D). (Monmouth U., Oct28)

S E N A T E — C O L O R A D O
[A] 72% chance to win. 49.7% Gardner (R); 48.1% Udall (D). (Nate Silver, Nov3)
[A] 80% chance to win for Gardner (R). (New York Times, Nov3)
[A] 98% chance to win for Gardner (R). (Washington Post, Nov3)
[A] 46.5% Gardner (R); 44.0% Udall (D). (Real Clear Politics, Nov2)
[P] 45% Gardner (R); 43% Udall (D). (Quinnipiac U., Nov2)
[P] 48% Gardner (R); 45% Udall (D). (Public Policy Polling, Nov2)
[A] “Leans” to Gardner (R). (L.Sabato/Politico, Oct29)
[P] 46% Gardner (R); 44% Udall (D). (SurveyUSA/Denver Post, Oct27)
[P] 51% Gardner (R); 45% Udall (D). (Rasmussen, Oct27)
[P] 46% Gardner (R); 45% Udall (D). (NBC News/Marist, Oct22)
[P] 46% Gardner (R); 39% Udall (D). (Suffolk U., Nov2)

S E N A T E — K A N S A S
[A] 53% chance of win. 49.0% Orman (I); 48.6% Roberts (R). (Nate Silver, Nov3)
[A] 51% chance of win for Roberts (R). (New York Times, Nov3)
[A] 43.4% Orman (I); 42.6% Roberts (R). (Real Clear Politics, Nov3)
[A] 98% chance of win for Roberts (R). (Washington Post, Nov3)
[P] 47% Orman (I); 46% Roberts (R). (Public Policy Polling, Nov2)
[P] 44% Orman (I); 43% Roberts (R). (Fox/Anderson-Robbins/Shaw, Oct30)
[P] 44% Orman (I); 42% Roberts (R). (SurveyUSA/KSN News, Oct26)
[P] 49% Orman (I); 44% Roberts (R). (Rasmussen, Oct23)
[P] 45% Orman (I); 44% Roberts (R). (NBC News/Marist, Oct22)

S E N A T E — I O W A
[A] 70% chance of win. 49.8% Ernst (R); 48.3% Braley (D). (Nate Silver, Nov3)
[A] 69% chance of win for Ernst (R). (New York Times, Nov3)
[A] 47.1% Ernst (R); 45.3% Braley (D). (Real Clear Politics, Nov3)
[A] 89% chance of win for Ernst (R). (Washington Post, Nov3)
[A] 47% Ernst (R); 47% Braley (D). (Quinnipiac U., Nov2)
[P] 49% Ernst (R); 46% Braley (D). (Public Policy Polling, Nov2)
[P] 48% Ernst (R); 47% Braley (D). (Rasmussen, Oct31)
[P] 50% Ernst (R); 44% Braley (D). (Des Moines Register, Oct31)
[P] 45% Ernst (R); 44% Braley (D). (Fox/Anderson-Robbins/Shaw, Oct30)
[P] 49% Ernst (R); 47% Braley (D). (CNN/ORC, Oct30)
[P] 49% Ernst (R); 46% Braley (D). (NBC News/Marist, Oct22)
[P] 47% Ernst (R); 46% Braley (D). (Monmouth U., Oct21)

S E N A T E — A L A S K A
[A] 74% chance of win. 50.1% Sullivan (R); 47.8% Begich (D). (Nate Silver, Nov3)
[A] 66% chance of win for Sullivan (R). (New York Times, Nov3)
[A] 81% chance of win for Sullivan (R). (Washington Post, Nov3)
[A] 46.2% Sullivan (R); 43.8% Begich (D). (Real Clear Politics, Nov2)
[P] 47% Sullivan (R); 46% Begich (D). (Public Policy Polling, Nov2)
[P] 47% Sullivan (R); 42% Begich (D). (Rasmussen/Pulse, Oct31)
[A] “Leans” to Sullivan (R). (L.Sabato/Politico, Oct15)

S E N A T E — L O U I S I A N A
[A] 81% chance of win. 52.3% Cassidy (R); 47.7% Landrieu (D). (Nate Silver, Nov3)
[A] 85% chance of win for Cassidy (R). (New York Times, Nov3)
[A] 48.8% Cassidy (R); 44.0% Landrieu (D). (Real Clear Politics, Nov1)
[P] 43% Landrieu (D); 35% Cassidy (R); 15% Maness (R). (Public Policy Polling, Nov1)
[P] 50% Cassidy (R); 45% Landrieu (D). (NBC News/Marist, Oct30)
[P] 43% Landrieu (D); 36% Cassidy (R); 13% Maness (R). (Rasmussen, Oct28)
[P] 36% Landrieu (D); 35% Cassidy (R); 11% Maness (R). (Suffolk U., Oct26)

S E N A T E — K E N T U C K Y
[A] 98% chance of win. 51.8% McConnell (R); 46.1% Lundergan Grimes (D). (Nate Silver, Nov3)
[A] 98% chance of win for McConnell (R). (New York Times, Nov3)
[A] >99% chance of win for McConnell (R). (Washington Post, Nov3)
[P] 49% McConnell (R); 41.8% Lundergan Grimes (D). (Public Policy Polling, Nov1)
[P] 50% McConnell (R); 41% Lundergan Grimes (D). (Marist, Oct29)
[P] 48% McConnell (R); 43% Lundergan Grimes (D). (SurveyUSA, Oct27)
[P] 50% McConnell (R); 43% Lundergan Grimes (D). (Public Opinion Strategies, Oct26)

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G O V E R N O R — W I S C O N S I N
[A] 47.5% Walker (R); 45.3% Burke (D). (Real Clear Politics, Oct31)
[P] 45% Walker (R); 43% Burke (D). (YouGov, Oct31)
[P] 50% Walker (R); 43% Burke (D). (Marquette U., Oct26)
[P] 49% Burke (D); 48% Walker (R). (Rasmussen, Oct22)

G O V E R N O R — T E X A S
[P] 52.3% Abbott (R); 36.8% Davis (D). (Rasmussen, Oct23)
[P] 57% Abbott (R); 37% Davis (D). (CBS/New York Times, Oct23)
[P] 54% Abbott (R); 38% Davis (D). (UT/Texas Tribute, Oct19)
[P] 51% Abbott (R); 40% Davis (D). (Rasmussen, Oct5)

G O V E R N O R — F L O R I D A
[A] 40.7% Crist (D); 40.3% Scott (R). (Real Clear Politics, Nov2)
[P] 42% Crist (D); 41% Scott (R). (Quinnipiac, Nov2)
[P] 44% Crist (D); 44% Scott (R). (Public Policy Polling, Nov2)
[P] 36% Crist (D); 36% Scott (R). (Tampa Bay Times, Oct28)

G O V E R N O R — G E O R G I A
[A] 47.5% Deal (R); 43% Carter (D). (Real Clear Politics, Nov3)
[A] “Leans” to Deal (R). (L.Sabato/Politico, Nov3)
[P] 47% Deal (R); 43% Carter (D). (Public Policy Polling, Nov3)
[P] 51% Deal (R); 45% Carter (D). (WSB-TV/Landmark, Nov2)
[P] 47% Deal (R); 42% Carter (D). (SurveyUSA/WXIA-TV, Nov2)
[P] 48% Deal (R); 43% Carter (D). (NBC/Marist, Oct30)
[P] 49% Deal (R); 43% Carter (D). (Rasmussen, Oct29)

G O V E R N O R — C O L O R A D O
[A] 45.3% Hickenlooper (D); 44.8% Beauprez (R). (Real Clear Politics, Nov2)
[P] 45% Beauprez (R); 43% Hickenlooper (D). (Quinnipiac, Nov2)
[P] 46% Beauprez (R); 46% Hickenlooper (D). (Public Policy Polling, Nov2)
[P] 46% Beauprez (R); 46% Hickenlooper (D). (Denver Post, Oct29)
[A] “Leans” to Hickenlooper (D). (L.Sabato/Politico, Oct29)
[P] 49% Beauprez (R); 47% Hickenlooper (D). (Rasmussen, Oct28)

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